A GOOD NEWS STORY?!?!
So I feel a little guilty. It’s early January, it’s really cold, it’s Omicron running amuk – should I really be sharing good news? Even better, as a Calgary real estate investor, we’re kind of swimming in good news! I barely know where to begin! But I think the world needs more positive news, don’t you?
GDP is continuing to trend up, no doubt, but we’ll be waiting a while for those updated and revised numbers.
Employment numbers are slowly trending in a positive direction. Canada’s unemployment improved from 6.0% to 5.9%. Alberta’s unemployment improved from 7.6% to 7.3%. This is the first time our stats have been better than pre-pandemic unemployment numbers! Calgary’s unemployment improved a “titch.” I have no idea what a “titch” actually is, it’s my Grandmother’s word for a small amount. Calgary went from 8.3% to 8.2% unemployment in December –still one of the highest in the country. But Edmonton saw a significant improvement from 7.6% in November to 6.6% in December. There are a lot of nuances to employment numbers; we are simply paying attention to the trends here.
Population numbers for the third Quarter were also recently released. Alberta showed it’s first net increase in migration numbers since before the pandemic (Q1 of 2020). The net increase is small but significant at 4489 new-to- Alberta souls. And U-Haul also recently released their numbers. Turns out they track the trucks arriving to major cities, and the trucks leaving major cities. So what did they find for 2021? Alberta was Canada’s Top Growth province for 2021. Calgary ranks Number 5 for top Canadian growth cities! (Red Deer comes in at number 8 and Airdrie comes in at number 24).
So what does this all mean for Calgary real estate? December sales were the highest since 2007. Detached homes saw a 42.5% increase in sales year over year (December). And yes, the sales increase happened in homes at every price point. Inventory usually drops in winter, but Calgary’s current inventory dropped 20% year over year, and is at its lowest since 2013. Prices show differences in different areas of the city, and different property types. For example, detached homes were up 3.8% year over year in December, while apartment prices were down 2%, year over year in December. Looking at the overall annual Calgary stats, sales were 72% higher in 2021! No wonder all those lawyers were so busy! This is also 44% higher than the 10 year average. And overall, the Benchmark price rose 8% in Calgary for 2021.
What about rents? These are tougher numbers to track, but Rentals.ca puts out a monthly report that can be found at https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report. The November numbers are showing a 3.75% increase in 2-bedroom prices, year over year. They are using an overall average rent price of $1438. They are predicting a modest 3% price gain for the Calgary rental market (note that this includes all rental properties & types).
Are we “Rockin’in the Free World” like Neil Young sang about? Okay, maybe not. But in the face of adversity, uncertainty and quite a bit of chaos, the steady upward trend is impressive. No one has a crystal ball, but when life does stabilize, it begs the question: How much stronger will Calgary and Alberta real estate markets grow?
