PEOPLE, PEOPLE … EVERYWHERE!
This was it! Today Canada crossed the 40 million population mark. And up, up, up we go! Today we’re diving deeper into population numbers, and then offering a bit of “so what” for real estate investors.
By now we’ve all heard that stat: Canada grew by 1.05 million people in 2022. And this was largely due to international migration = 96%!! This puts the country’s population growth rate at 2.7%, which is the highest since 1957. For perspective, Canada had approximately 30 million people in 1997 (10 million in 26 years), but is projected to grow to 50 million by 2043 (just 20 years).
What about the Alberta picture? Alberta grew by 3.7% in the 12 months of 2022. In the third quarter of 2022, Alberta saw its highest international migration on record! In the same Q3, we had our second highest interprovincial migration. And there were lots of babies in this province, leading to a high “natural increase” (=newborns vs recently departed).
The other very interesting fact about Alberta is that our population is younger than the Canadian average: Alberta’s average age is 39 years, nationally it is 41.7 years. And Alberta seniors over age 65 form 14.8% of our population in 2022, compared to Canadian seniors forming 18.8% of the nation’s population. This means we generally have more worker-bees than other areas of Canada.
So why would real estate investors care about all these people numbers? On the positive side, there are more tenants for our rental properties, more customers for our businesses, and more workers to address some of the labour shortages we have been experiencing. Possible concerns will soon be felt in health and education, even infrastructure like transit. Housing pressure is already evident with high demand for rental properties. My personal question? How will we provide enough energy for our all these people (electricity, gas, solar, etc…)? I just don’t see utility providers growing fast enough—yet.
At this point in time, population looks like it will continue to grow in Alberta. Where in this province? Recent research shows that 86% of international immigrants move into the Calgary-Edmonton corridor, 77% of inter-provincial migrants do the same thing. So, if I was buying property or building housing … I would give my customers what they want! And if affordability continues to be such a strong motivator, I would be looking to provide entry-level housing (for purchase or rent).
Don’t worry, we didn’t make any of this stuff up. ATB has documented these stats: https://www.atb.com/siteassets/pdf/company/insights/outlook/foot-traffic-june-2023.pdf and created a broader economic outlook: https://www.atb.com/siteassets/pdf/company/insights/outlook/economic-outlook-june-2023.pdf. The bottom line in these articles: more people, more urban and more diversity. How are you planning to serve your future customers and create your financial freedom?
