CHEERING FOR THE UNDERDOG
What a fun Stanley Cup Final Series! Who doesn’t love the grit and determination of a great comeback story?! The Edmonton Oilers were down 3 games. Almost insurmountable odds. The classic definition of the underdog: “statistically expected to lose.” But wait … there’s more. Someone forgot to measure this team’s heart, passion and ability to give it 100%.
At the risk of committing hockey blasphemy, I am noticing a commonality between the underdog hockey team and today’s real estate investors, builders and developers. With the odds, the policies, the finances all stacked against them, deeply committed small business owners are still creating desperately needed new homes. Can you hear the crowd roaring in the stands?
Sadly, no.
Governments in Canada don’t want to build or manage residential real estate. But they are throwing obstacle after obstacle into the path of those brave, hard-working souls who are creating new homes. Banks have also become very wary of builders and developers. In all fairness, there are receiverships and bankruptcies occurring in this business community at an alarming rate—BUT, mostly in certain parts of the country. And then there are the media and public spectators at our housing (not hockey) game. Posting inflammatory and blame-oriented stories and headlines has become a sport in-and-of-itself.
Losing 3 games in a row in hockey, is like watching rental rates rise, and rise, and rise again. Or costs to build. Or labour shortages/costs. Or municipal delays that drag on, week after week,…. Meanwhile, the real cause of these “losses” is simply supply and demand. Well, mostly demand.
Truth? Canada’s population is now over 41 million, 99.3% is due to international migration, https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240619/dq240619a-eng.htm . May I ask, is this caused by the builders, developers or real estate investors? Obviously not. Yet they are shouldering the burden of finding solutions, and fast! Alberta’s first quarter population growth is estimated to be 49,140 new souls, https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/alberta-population-update-first-quarter-2024/. Calgary Economics recently published their population outlook for 2024 through 2029, https://www.calgary.ca/research/corporate-economics.html (click on the link to the report). “Calgary was the fastest-growing major municipality in Canada in 2023.” So, who’s surprised we are experiencing some housing challenges? It was a 6% growth rate for the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area. Remember the growing pains when our kids grew too fast? Very real. We haven’t adapted yet to 2023, yet 2024 is anticipated to have a 4.9% growth rate, before our population growth starts to moderate. And despite our government’s alleged good intentions, some people are questioning if the overall population growth will, in fact, slow as intended, https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?id=352931fa-f991-440f-ad2b-ac85b1b1f599&flag=E. As always, Benjamin Tal writes a deeply researched and well-thought-out article, wondering if the actual population growth will be double the intended growth—and worried about the rental and economic implications.
Our intention today is not to blame the coach, the fans or the players for the start of the Stanley Cup series—or the current “game” of housing Canadians. Our intention is to acknowledge and cheer on the coaches and players who are putting it all out there for Game 7! There is a lot on the line! Let’s stay focused on solutions, and play with all the heart we’ve got! The game will be intense and difficult, but it is undoubtedly a worthy goal (pun intended).
