AUTUMN WINDS OF CHANGE
As much as we love summer, the changing of the seasons brings exquisite colors all around us! Lately it seems like Mother Nature has painted her canvas in endless golden hues. This fall harvest brings a banquet for the eyes, and scrumptious autumn fruits and veggies. Or simply pumpkin lattes, if that’s your thing?!
Have you noticed the seasons appearing to change a little in the real estate investing world too? And how the economic experts are all updating their forecasts? I’m glad we don’t have their job! Here is our monthly update (just the facts ma’am), with a blatant focus on Calgary and Alberta.
- Canada’s GDP was up slightly in July at 0.2% (reminder that June was basically no change 0.0, and May was 0.1%). https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadian-gdp/. ATB Financial is now predicting that Canada’s GDP overall for 2024 will be approximately 1.2%, and 2025 is forecast to be about 2.0%. https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/alberta-economic-outlook-october-2024/. Their forecast for Alberta is 2.5% for 2024, and 2.8% for 2025. Depending on where you live, the numbers suggest Canada and Alberta will avoid a recession … time will tell.
- Current unemployment stats will be out next week. In its place this month, “The job vacancy rate—which corresponds to the number of vacant positions as a proportion of total labor demand—was 3.0% in July 2024.” https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240926/dq240926a-eng.htm. This is down by a full 1.0% since July 2023. Alberta’s job vacancy rate was also 3.0%, https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/job-vacancy-rate-to-july-2024/. In spite of this, employers continue to have challenges finding skilled The unemployment rate is expected to continue to rise in 2024, potentially above 7.0%.
- “The population will go from red hot to very warm, moderating from 4.4% growth in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, driven by a slowdown in temporary residents and, to a lesser extent, interprovincial migrants.” https://www.atb.com/company/insights/the-twenty-four/atb-economics-the-seven-october-4-2024/. ATB’s Economic Outlook is well worth the read, and far more detailed than our little blog!
- Nationwide, “Rents grew at their slowest annual rate in 34 months.” Calgary’s rents were flat to a small decrease of 1% to 2%. Edmonton was the only city to record annual rent growth in August. Of note, Alberta’s construction community is building close to the same rapid pace of 2006-2007, with a significant focus on multi-units. https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report.
- Meanwhile, there is drama in the real estate stats, or is there? The headlines read that sales were down 17% (year over year)–cue the Hallowe’en creepy music. However, last year was an off-the -charts record high. When September’s sales are compared to longer term averages, Calgary is still up by 16%. Don’t you love stats?!? The other challenge with this month’s statistics is that the Benchmark price appears to be up 5.5% (year over year); however, closer examination reveals that Benchmark Price in Calgary peaked very early in 2024, and has been slowly trending down. https://www.creb.com/News/CREBNow/2024/October/New_listing_growth_driven_by_higher-priced_homes/. Personally, we’re thrilled to see a more balanced market.
Beyond all this data, there is so much more to comment on the real estate market, but we can see your eyes glazing over. Bottom line: we’re still very excited about the Alberta and Calgary opportunities. To follow us, check out @MtnEdgeDevelops or @MtnEdgeRenovate. Or connect with us any time to learn more about our current and upcoming projects.
